Dow heads for first gain in four sessions ahead of inflation data, earnings season

Dow heads for first gain in four days ahead of inflation data, earnings season – MarketWatch

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Market Snapshot Last Updated: July 10, 2023 at 2:35 p.m. ET First Published: July 10, 2023 at 5:05 a.m. ET

Dow up 200 points, stocks edge higher

The Dow and S&P 500 are higher Monday as investors await fresh inflation data from the consumer-price index.

Angela Weiss/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

[]U.S. stocks traded higher Monday afternoon, ahead of crucial inflation data and the start of second-quarter earnings season this week, as traders searched for clues to gauge the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate path for the second half.

How stocks are trading

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.52% advanced 191 points, or 0.6%, to 33,925. It finished down on Friday for the third straight session.
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.12% was up 6 point, or 0.2%, at 4,406.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.08% was down 14 points, or 0.1%, at 13,675.

[]On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 187.38 points, or 0.6%, to 33,734.88, the S&P 500 declined 12.64 points, or 0.3%, to 4,398.95, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 18.33 points, or 0.1%, to 13,660.72. The indexes finished with weekly losses of 2%, 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

What’s driving markets

[]Stocks struggled for direction on Monday, following last week’s relatively robust economic data which pushed bond yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 4.013% toward cycle highs.

[]Efforts to gauge the Fed’s plans for any further increases to its benchmark interest- rate target will be firmly in focus, with the June consumer-price index report due on Wednesday, analysts said.

[]Read: S&P 500 could surge 100 points this week on inflation data, says Fundstrat’s Lee

[]Tom di Galoma, managing director and co-head of global rates trading at BTIG, said he expects June’s annual headline rate from the consumer-price index to drop to around 3% from 4% in May, and the narrower core gauge to “easily” fall to 5% year-over-year and to 4% by year-end.

[]“Inflation is coming down quite a bit and I don’t expect this inflation number on Wednesday will be any different,” di Galoma said via phone. He said he expects Fed officials to deliver just one more quarter-of-a-percentage point rate hike later this month, “and then just go home for the balance of the year.”

[]Still, policy makers remained vigilant about their inflation fight on Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a “couple” of additional rate hikes are likely needed this year and that the labor market in the U.S. remains “really strong.”

[]One of her colleagues, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, said the U.S. central bank needs to raise interest rates further to bring inflation down toward the Fed’s 2% target.

[]“In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more inflation on how the economy is evolving,” Mester said in a speech at the University of California San Diego.

[]In U.S. economic data, wholesale inventories in the U.S. were unchanged in May following a decline in the prior month — indicating businesses are producing or stockpiling fewer goods due to an uncertain economy.

[]The second-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season will kick into gear on Friday, when big banks such as JPMorgan Chase JPM, +0.26%, Citigroup C, -0.07% and Wells Fargo WFC, -0.62% present their numbers.

[]As second-quarter results begin to roll in this week, “corporate earnings need to deliver on market expectations to support stocks, in our view,” according to Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Institute, and others.

[]“We see a key divergence in earnings forecasts: They have risen for a few tech firms, while the rest stagnate,” they wrote in a note. “Profit margins are shrinking, and we see more pressure ahead. So we get granular and favor sectors like healthcare within developed market stocks.”

Companies in focus

Shares of Nvidia Corp. NVDA, -0.94% slipped 0.9% even after Citi Research analyst Christopher Danely wrote that the company stands to command “at least 90%” of the AI-graphics market going forward.
Icahn Enterprises L.P. IEP, +18.75%’s stock jumped 20.4% Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that investor Carl Icahn and his lenders have finalized amended loan agreements that untie his personal loans from the trading price of his company’s shares.
Shares of Mobilcom Ltd. MOB, +87.00% surged 79% in very active trading on Monday after the provider of cybersecurity offerings for drones and robotics announced a purchase order from Teledyne Technologies Inc. TDY, +0.88%.
Shares of Cava Group Inc. CAVA, +10.75% rose 10.6% after analysts initiated coverage on the stock of the Mediterranean-style fast-casual restaurant chain, which made its public-markets debut in mid-June.

[]— Jamie Chisholm contributed.

Either the economy is about to break or more tightening will be needed, strategist says []Deterioration in the data is just around the corner, or even more monetary policy restriction is needed, say strategists at BNP Paribas.

[]Vivien Lou Chen is a Markets Reporter for MarketWatch. You can follow her on Twitter @vivienlouchen.

[]Frances Yue covers the cryptocurrency market for MarketWatch.

–> More stuff could go in this aside column