July 18, 2025
10- and 30-year Treasury yields retreat from 2023 high after jobs report

10- and 30-year Treasury yields retreat from 2023 high after jobs report

10- and 30-year Treasury yields retreat from 2023 high after jobs report – MarketWatch []Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch’s coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch’s economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.”,”email”:”[email protected]”,”url”:”https://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/steve-goldstein”,”image”:”https://images.mktw.net/im-786277?width=816&height=816″,”sameAs”:”https://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/steve-goldstein”}],”thumbnailUrl”:”https://mw3.wsj.net/mw5/content/logos/mw_logo_social.png”}] ]]]]]]]]>]]]]]]>]]]]>]]>

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Bond Report

Last Updated: Aug. 4, 2023 at 4:09 p.m. ET First Published: Aug. 4, 2023 at 5:07 a.m. ET

[]Treasury yields dropped sharply Friday, with rates on the 10-year note and 30-year bond retreating from their highest levels since November, after the July employment report showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected.

[]Yields still saw a significant weekly rise, however, as investors await a large increase in debt issuance by the U.S. government.

What’s happening

  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y fell 10.3 basis points to 4.791% on Friday, leaving a 10.4 basis point drop for the week. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y fell 12.8 basis points to 4.06%, its biggest one-day drop since May 2, leaving it with a weekly rise of 9.2 basis points.
  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y fell 9 basis points to 4.214%, trimming its weekly rise to 18.6 basis points.

What’s driving markets

[]The U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said. Economists had looked for an increase of 200,000. Jobs gains for June and May were also revised lower.

[]The unemployment rate, however, ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, for a 4.4% year-over-year gain, which was stronger than expected.

[]Treasury securities at the long end of the curve tumbled in value this week on signs the U.S. economy is still growing at a solid clip. The 10-year yield surged by 11 basis points on Thursday, taking it to the highest level since Nov. 7, 2022. The 30-year yield also reached the highest level in 10 months.

[]Traders and investors this week were also focused on the U.S.’s deteriorating fiscal outlook as underscored by the Treasury’s plans to borrow $1 trillion in the third quarter and Fitch’s downgrade of the government’s top AAA rating on Tuesday.

What analysts are saying

[]“This jobs report is definitely not a gamechanger,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Financial Management, in a note.

[]“The Fed still has another report to come before their next meeting but, if no clear direction emerges, the Fed is likely to stay put,” she said. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “seems to need a very compelling reason to hike again so, with the hurdle so high, it would likely take a meaningful upside surprise to both job gains and wage growth to prompt Fed action in September.”

[]The steepening of the yield curve, with rates at the long end rising as shorter-dated yields fell, “has been a function of the Treasury Department’s increase in auction sizes and signaling that there is more to come in November — and February could also see greater borrowing needs translate into larger nominal coupon auction sizes,” wrote strategists Ian Lyngen and Benjamin Jeffery of BMO Capital Markets.

A giant wealth transfer explains why the economy isn’t responding to Fed policy: Ray Dalio

[]A giant transfer of wealth from public sector to the private sector has made the economy less responsive to Fed tightening, says billionaire investor Ray Dalio.

[]William Watts is MarketWatch markets editor. In addition to managing markets coverage, he writes about stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, including oil. He also writes about global macro issues and trading strategies. During his time at MarketWatch, Watts has served in key roles in the Frankfurt, London, New York and Washington, D.C., newsrooms.

[]Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch’s coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch’s economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.

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